There were 13 military coups in Africa in recent years. Why does this keep happening?

Russia is weaponizing global food security in its war—but agribusiness is promising to come to Ukraine’s rescue.

The likelihood of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan is very slim but that doesn’t mean Beijing won’t try to take over the island by other means avoiding an American intervention at the same time. The corporate world has taken note.

While AI-assisted malware is certainly concerning, what remains the most alarming for the West is how artificial intelligence is changing the future of warfare—even faster than expected. The Chinese military has been investing heavily in intelligent warfare, making weapons systems and military operations more networked and autonomous.

Let’s look at the most plausible scenarios that can play out in the next few months:

1- The clerics stay in place after having violently destroyed the rebellion

2- The clerics are replaced by a military dictatorship headed by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) that decide to forego all the religious aspects of life

3- The mullahs along with the Revolutionary Guards are kicked out and replaced by a coalition of various Iranian political actors including the Shah’s son, the seculars, and the Kurds.

That Chinese involvement in global telecommunications infrastructure is a weak point is not a new realization. In the wake of the Ukraine war and the shifting geopolitical landscape, however, this issue has received special urgency and should be the definitive wake-up call for Western allies on both sides of the Atlantic.

The terror threat from the Iranian regime is at the highest since the 1980’s. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that the stabbing of Salman Rushdie should be a “wake up call for the West”. It wasn’t after Ayatollah Khomeini issued a fatwa against the author in 1989, will it be any different now?

The Islamic State’s re-emergence in Syria has opened a can of worms. So, to sum up, the U.S. is supporting the Kurds in Syria while its NATO ally Turkey is attacking the Kurds. Russia and the US, while at odds on everything else, agree that a Turkish ground invasion should be avoided at all costs. And finally, let’s not forget about Iran, the other stalwart ally of Assad that uses Syria as its advanced weapons warehouse. Who said geopolitics were not complex?

While Russia is focusing its war efforts on trying to rescue a war in Ukraine that is not going according to plan to say the least, Vladimir Putin has made no secrets that his real enemy remains the West. From cyberattacks to social media disinformation campaigns to election manipulation, the Kremlin has tried to destabilise the west ad nauseum in the past few years. Nonetheless the coup plot recently foiled in Germany that could have links to Russia is a dramatic escalation of Moscow’s subversive actions.

China’s forceful power grab in Hong Kong with a muted international reaction has only emboldened Beijing to possibly try to take control of Taiwan in a subversive way. How would the U.S. and its allies react to a soft coup? China is likely to take over Taiwan but not the way you think. The risk reward of a Chinese military invasion is way too high, and the west should be prepared for more subtle tactics to gain control of Taiwan.

With the latest coup in Burkina Faso very much supported by Moscow, Russia is adding another potential satellite in the Sahel and the Wagner Group might be moving in soon there as well. Mali and the Central African Republic are already pawns of Moscow. Even with the focus being on fighting the war in Ukraine, Russian President Putin is still very much looking at Africa.

Terrorism expert Olivier Guitta has been observing Moscow's increased involvement in the region for years. “Now Moscow is reaping the rewards. No country in the region has condemned the Russian attack on Ukraine," he says. Guitta believes that the main reason for sympathy for Russia is the vacuum left by the US government.

It is true that while the West was busy looking at the conflict in Ukraine, China quietly moved its pawns all across the Asia-Pacific region. In just the past month, numerous signs are pointing towards a much more aggressive military stance from Beijing. While a recent American military report pointed out that surprising shortfalls in China’s military logistics suggest a lack of conflict readiness, the superior might of the Chinese army over its direct neighbours make it a huge military threat.

Many countries have now realised that they should grow more food, but they have sold their best land to China. China has built a web of controlling not only some critical industries like the pharmaceutical but also natural resources; now with the food weapon, Beijing has a dramatic advantage over the west.

The first tipping point that triggered even more distrust of China actually happened after Russia invaded Ukraine with the surprising tough western sanctions and numerous companies leaving Russia altogether. In February, a poll found that 45% of German manufacturers and 55% of German retailers said they planned to reduce imports from China.